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The correct answer is
B. When she has no scleroderma pattern on capillaroscopy and no SSc specific antibodies then her chance to get systemic sclerosis is less than 10% over the long run according to the landmark study of Koenig et al.
D. When she has no scleroderma pattern on capillaroscopy and an anti -centromere then she has less than 30 % to develop systemic sclerosis according to Koenig et al in the long run
E. When she both has a scleroderma pattern and an SSc specific antibody then she has a high chance to get systemic sclerosis.
Explanation concerning A,B and E: The landmark study of Koenig et al. (Arthritis Rheum. 2008 Dec;58(12):3902-12.) nicely showed that in a patient population the Raynauds phenomenon at baseline but no other signal of a connective tissue disease that patients who have no SSc-specific antibody and no scleroderma pattern on capillaroscopy have a very low chance (1.8% over the long run) to develop SSc (table 4 in the manuscript by Koenig et al.)
Hence A was not correct.
Hence B was correct.
Explanation concerning E: Conversely Koeing et al showed that those with both SSc-specific antibodies (Anti–topo I , anti–RNAP III and Anti–CENP-B) and a scleroderma pattern on capillaroscopy do have very high chance to get systemic sclerosis over de long run, more specifically 79,5%. Hence E is correct.
Explanation concerning C: anti SSa is not a systemic sclerosis antibody hence this patient does not have a high chance. In fact, the landmark study of Koenig et al. (Arthritis Rheum. 2008 Dec;58(12):3902-12.) nicely showed that in a patient population the Raynauds phenomenon at baseline but no other signal of a connective tissue disease that patients who have no SSc-specific antibody and no scleroderma pattern on capillaroscopy have a very low chance (1.8% over the long run) to develop SSc (table 4 in the manuscript by Koenig et al.)
Explanation concerning D: If there is no scleroderma pattern but only an SSc specific antibody positivity then the landmark paper of Koenig show that the chance to develop SSc is only 23% over the long run.
Hence it is correct to say that the chance is less than 30%.
By
Prof Maurizio Cutolo
Professor of Rheumatology and Professor of Internal Medicine,
Director of Laboratories for Experimental Rheumatology and Academic Division of Clinical Rheumatology
Director of Postgraduate School of Rheumatology
University of Genova, Italy
Prof Vanessa Smith
Head of Clinics, Ghent University Hospital
Associate Professor of Rheumatology
Ghent University, Belgium